US / US midterms 2026 / Texas Senate
Texas senate
Texas Senate 2026 results: Ken Paxton (R) vs James Talarico (D)
Election day 3 November 2026
Result
Result so far: 99% reporting
DDHQ projects James Talarico (D), 10:14 pm ET
Democratic gain from Republicans
James Talarico D54.0%
5,408,693 votes
Ken Paxton R44.1%
4,417,403 votes
Ted Brown L1.9%
188,786 votes
Others O0.0%
0 votes
civicAPI, 10:49 am Wed ET (3:49 pm Wed UK).
Final pre-election PollCheck polling average
Ken Paxton (R)
45.7%
+0.5 in 30 days
James Talarico (D)
48.7%
+1.3 in 30 days
Ted Brown (L)
2.2%
-1.4 in 30 days
Win probability
68%
Talarico - Lean D
- Incumbent
- John Cornyn (R)
- Status
- Incumbent lost renomination in runoff
- Last result
- 2020: John Cornyn (R) 53.5%, MJ Hegar (D) 43.9%
- 2024 president
- R+13.7
- Election day
- 3 November 2026, polls close 8 pm and 9 pm Eastern (1 am and 2 am Wed UK)
Polling trend
Texas senate polling average
Every poll
92 general election polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Paxton | Talarico | Brown | Spread | vs avg | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. Leans D+0.1 | 31 Oct 2026 - 2 Nov 2026 | 450 LV | 46% | 49% | 1% | Talarico +3 | 0.0 | Pollster |
| Trafalgar Group R Leans R+1.5 | 31 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,089 LV | 48% | 48% | 2% | Tie | Paxton +3.0 | Pollster |
| Emerson College Leans R+0.2↑ Poll sponsored by Poll Vault , a Substack newsletter authored by Sean Trende | 31 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 500 LV | 48% | 50% | 2% | Talarico +2 | Paxton +1.0 | Pollster |
| AtlasIntel Leans D+3.5 | 28 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,678 LV | 45% | 51% | - | Talarico +6 | Paxton -3.0 | Pollster |
| New York Times / Siena University Leans D+1.0 | 27 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,215 LV | 43% | 50% | - | Talarico +7 | Paxton -4.0 | Pollster |
| HarrisX Leans R+1.1 | 30 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 512 LV | 44% | 50% | - | Talarico +6 | Paxton -3.0 | Pollster |
| Kreate Strategies Leans R+0.4 | 27 Oct 2026 - 30 Oct 2026 | 900 LV | 45% | 48% | 0% | Talarico +3 | Paxton -0.2 | Pollster |
| YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 26 Oct 2026 - 29 Oct 2026 | 2,141 LV | 47% | 51% | - | Talarico +4 | Paxton -1.2 | Pollster |
| Quantus Insights Leans R+1.4 | 26 Oct 2026 - 28 Oct 2026 | 1,221 LV | 49% | 48% | 1% | Paxton +1 | Paxton +3.8 | Pollster |
| ActiVote Leans R+0.5 | 22 Oct 2026 - 28 Oct 2026 | 400 LV | 48% | 52% | - | Talarico +4 | Paxton -1.2 | Pollster |
| A2 Insights Leans D+0.6 | 23 Oct 2026 - 27 Oct 2026 | 631 LV | 47% | 50% | - | Talarico +3 | Paxton -0.2 | Pollster |
| SSRS Leans D+0.8↑ "CNN poll conducted by SSRS Texas October" . CNN . October 29, 2026 . Retrieved October 29, 2026 – via DocumentCloud .; ↑ Poll conducted for CNN | 20 Oct 2026 - 27 Oct 2026 | 923 LV | 43% | 49% | - | Talarico +6 | Paxton -3.2 | Pollster |
| Data for Progress D Leans D+0.2 | 23 Oct 2026 - 26 Oct 2026 | 712 LV | 45% | 49% | 2% | Talarico +4 | Paxton -1.4 | Pollster |
| YouGov Blue D Leans D+1.5Poll conducted on behalf of 254 Labs | 21 Oct 2026 - 26 Oct 2026 | 1,000 RV | 43% | 51% | - | Talarico +8 | Paxton -5.4 | Pollster |
| Texas Southern University Leans R+0.8 | 21 Oct 2026 - 25 Oct 2026 | 2,000 LV | 47% | 49% | 3% | Talarico +2 | Paxton +0.5 | Pollster |
| Rasmussen Reports Leans R+0.9 | 20 Oct 2026 - 21 Oct 2026 | 965 LV | 45% | 45% | 5% | Tie | Paxton +2.5 | Pollster |
| ActiVote Leans R+0.5 | 17 Oct 2026 - 21 Oct 2026 | 400 LV | 49% | 51% | - | Talarico +2 | Paxton +0.5 | Pollster |
| Univision / YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 13 Oct 2026 - 21 Oct 2026 | 1,000 RV | 45% | 50% | - | Talarico +5 | Paxton -2.5 | Pollster |
| Verasight /VoteHub Leans D+1.6 | 1 Oct 2026 - 20 Oct 2026 | 509 LV | 45% | 48% | 1% | Talarico +3 | Paxton -0.5 | Pollster |
| Verasight /VoteHub Leans D+1.6Not in average: same survey, another version used | 1 Oct 2026 - 20 Oct 2026 | 509 LV | 41% | 46% | 4% | Talarico +5 | Paxton -2.5 | Pollster |
| Verasight /VoteHub Leans D+1.6Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 1 Oct 2026 - 20 Oct 2026 | 517 RV | 45% | 46% | 2% | Talarico +1 | Paxton +1.5 | Pollster |
| Verasight /VoteHub Leans D+1.6Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 1 Oct 2026 - 20 Oct 2026 | 517 RV | 41% | 43% | 5% | Talarico +2 | Paxton +0.5 | Pollster |
| Emerson College Leans R+0.2 | 17 Oct 2026 - 19 Oct 2026 | 1,000 LV | 48% | 49% | 3% | Talarico +1 | Paxton +1.5 | Pollster |
| Emerson College Leans R+0.2Not in average: same survey, another version used | 17 Oct 2026 - 19 Oct 2026 | 1,000 LV | 46% | 48% | 1% | Talarico +2 | Paxton +0.5 | Pollster |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) Leans D+0.3Poll conducted for Fox News | 15 Oct 2026 - 19 Oct 2026 | 1,398 LV | 49% | 49% | - | Tie | Paxton +2.5 | Pollster |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) Leans D+0.3Poll conducted for Fox NewsNot in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 15 Oct 2026 - 19 Oct 2026 | 2,011 RV | 46% | 52% | - | Talarico +6 | Paxton -3.5 | Pollster |
| Texas Public Opinion Research D Leans D+0.9 | 15 Oct 2026 - 18 Oct 2026 | 969 LV | 47% | 51% | 2% | Talarico +4 | Paxton -1.3 | Pollster |
| Pollfinity Research Leans D+0.6 | 15 Oct 2026 - 18 Oct 2026 | 278 RV | 43% | 48% | 2% | Talarico +5 | Paxton -2.3 | Pollster |
| CBS News / YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 8 Oct 2026 - 16 Oct 2026 | 1,492 LV | 49% | 51% | - | Talarico +2 | Paxton +0.6 | Pollster |
| Cor Strategies R↑ Poll sponsored by Heritage Action | 10 Oct 2026 - 15 Oct 2026 | 1,409 LV | 40% | 44% | - | Talarico +4 | Paxton -1.3 | Pollster |
| InsiderAdvantage Leans R+1.1 | 13 Oct 2026 - 14 Oct 2026 | 1,200 LV | 49% | 48% | 2% | Paxton +1 | Paxton +3.6 | Pollster |
| University of Houston Leans R+0.3 | 10 Oct 2026 - 14 Oct 2026 | 2,000 LV | 46% | 48% | 3% | Talarico +2 | Paxton +0.6 | Pollster |
| ActiVote Leans R+0.5 | 30 Sep 2026 - 14 Oct 2026 | 400 LV | 48% | 52% | - | Talarico +4 | Paxton -1.4 | Pollster |
| GS Strategy Group (R)/ New River Strategies (D) Leans D+1.0↑ Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report . | 9 Oct 2026 - 13 Oct 2026 | 934 LV | 44% | 49% | 3% | Talarico +5 | Paxton -2.3 | Pollster |
| Quantus Insights Leans R+1.4 | 9 Oct 2026 - 11 Oct 2026 | 854 LV | 47% | 47% | 2% | Tie | Paxton +2.6 | Pollster |
| Marist University Leans D+1.6 | 8 Oct 2026 - 11 Oct 2026 | - LV | 45% | 47% | - | Talarico +2 | Paxton +0.6 | Pollster |
| Marist University Leans D+1.6Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 8 Oct 2026 - 11 Oct 2026 | 1,196 RV | 44% | 48% | - | Talarico +4 | Paxton -1.4 | Pollster |
| Trafalgar Group R Leans R+1.5 | 6 Oct 2026 - 8 Oct 2026 | 1,086 LV | 44% | 47% | 2% | Talarico +3 | Paxton -0.2 | Pollster |
| ReconMR/ Siena University Leans D+1.0 | 5 Oct 2026 - 8 Oct 2026 | 617 LV | 44% | 48% | - | Talarico +4 | Paxton -1.2 | Pollster |
| YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 28 Sep 2026 - 5 Oct 2026 | 3,625 LV | 44% | 50% | - | Talarico +6 | Paxton -3.2 | Pollster |
| University of Texas /Texas Politics Project Leans D+0.1 | 25 Sep 2026 - 5 Oct 2026 | 861 LV | 47% | 50% | 1% | Talarico +3 | Paxton -0.2 | Pollster |
| New York Times / Siena University Leans D+1.0 | 21 Sep 2026 - 30 Sep 2026 | 615 LV | 45% | 51% | - | Talarico +6 | Paxton -3.8 | Pollster |
| Rasmussen Reports Leans R+0.9 | 28 Sep 2026 - 29 Sep 2026 | 1,128 LV | 45% | 46% | 4% | Talarico +1 | Paxton +1.1 | Pollster |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) Leans D+0.3Poll conducted for Fox News | 24 Sep 2026 - 28 Sep 2026 | 881 LV | 49% | 51% | - | Talarico +2 | Paxton +0.2 | Pollster |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) Leans D+0.3Poll conducted for Fox NewsNot in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 24 Sep 2026 - 28 Sep 2026 | 1,203 RV | 46% | 53% | - | Talarico +7 | Paxton -4.8 | Pollster |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy R Leans R+0.0↑ Poll sponsored by Public First Action | 20 Sep 2026 - 28 Sep 2026 | 800 LV | 44% | 47% | 4% | Talarico +3 | Paxton -0.8 | Pollster |
| UMass Lowell / YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 18 Sep 2026 - 28 Sep 2026 | 850 LV | 45% | 45% | 2% | Tie | Paxton +2.2 | Pollster |
| Pulse Decision Science RPoll sponsored by Paxton's campaign | 24 Sep 2026 - 27 Sep 2026 | 800 LV | 48% | 45% | - | Paxton +3 | Paxton +5.5 | Pollster |
| Big Data Poll Leans D+0.5↑ Poll sponsored by the Public Polling Project | 24 Sep 2026 - 26 Sep 2026 | 698 LV | 45% | 47% | 8% | Talarico +2 | Paxton +0.8 | Pollster |
| Big Data Poll Leans D+0.5↑ Poll sponsored by the Public Polling ProjectNot in average: same survey, another version used | 24 Sep 2026 - 26 Sep 2026 | 698 LV | 42% | 45% | 5% | Talarico +3 | Paxton -0.2 | Pollster |
| Big Data Poll Leans D+0.5↑ Poll sponsored by the Public Polling ProjectNot in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 24 Sep 2026 - 26 Sep 2026 | 793 RV | 44% | 46% | 10% | Talarico +2 | Paxton +0.8 | Pollster |
| Big Data Poll Leans D+0.5↑ Poll sponsored by the Public Polling ProjectNot in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 24 Sep 2026 - 26 Sep 2026 | 793 RV | 39% | 44% | 5% | Talarico +5 | Paxton -2.2 | Pollster |
| Stratus Intelligence R Leans R+1.1↑ Poll sponsored by Texans for a Conservative Majority | 22 Sep 2026 - 24 Sep 2026 | 856 LV | 48% | 48% | - | Tie | Paxton +3.0 | Pollster |
| Texas Public Opinion Research D Leans D+0.9 | 19 Sep 2026 - 22 Sep 2026 | 1,007 LV | 44% | 49% | 3% | Talarico +5 | Paxton -1.9 | Pollster |
| Marist University Leans D+1.6 | 17 Sep 2026 - 20 Sep 2026 | 1,139 RV | 44% | 50% | - | Talarico +6 | Paxton -2.9 | Pollster |
| Texas Southern University Leans R+0.8 | 15 Sep 2026 - 19 Sep 2026 | 1,800 LV | 46% | 47% | 3% | Talarico +1 | Paxton +1.9 | Pollster |
| Trafalgar Group R Leans R+1.5 | 15 Sep 2026 - 17 Sep 2026 | 1,079 LV | 45% | 46% | 3% | Talarico +1 | Paxton +2.1 | Pollster |
| Emerson College Leans R+0.2 | 12 Sep 2026 - 14 Sep 2026 | 1,000 LV | 46% | 47% | 2% | Talarico +1 | Paxton +2.0 | Pollster |
| SoCal Strategies Leans R+1.0 | 12 Sep 2026 - 13 Sep 2026 | 649 LV | 45% | 50% | - | Talarico +5 | Paxton -1.9 | Pollster |
| ReconMR/ Siena University Leans D+1.0 | 8 Sep 2026 - 11 Sep 2026 | 614 LV | 43% | 49% | - | Talarico +6 | Paxton -3.1 | Pollster |
| Mason-Dixon Leans R+0.9↑ Poll sponsored by Telemundo Texas | 8 Sep 2026 - 10 Sep 2026 | 625 LV | 43% | 46% | 3% | Talarico +3 | Paxton -0.4 | Pollster |
| InsiderAdvantage Leans R+1.1 | 8 Sep 2026 - 9 Sep 2026 | 1,200 LV | 46% | 47% | 2% | Talarico +1 | Paxton +1.4 | Pollster |
| Univision / YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 27 Aug 2026 - 4 Sep 2026 | 1,000 RV | 43% | 48% | - | Talarico +5 | Paxton -2.5 | Pollster |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) Leans D+0.8↑ Poll commissioned by AARP | 30 Aug 2026 - 1 Sep 2026 | 895 LV | 44% | 48% | - | Talarico +4 | Paxton -2.2 | Pollster |
| Overton Insights R Leans D+0.1Poll sponsored by the Texas Public Policy Foundation , a conservative think tank | 24 Aug 2026 - 26 Aug 2026 | 1,167 LV | 50% | 50% | - | Tie | Paxton +1.3 | Pollster |
| Overton Insights R Leans D+0.1Poll sponsored by the Texas Public Policy Foundation , a conservative think tankNot in average: same survey, another version used | 24 Aug 2026 - 26 Aug 2026 | 1,167 LV | 43% | 44% | - | Talarico +1 | Paxton +0.3 | Pollster |
| Texas Public Opinion Research D Leans D+0.9 | 21 Aug 2026 - 24 Aug 2026 | 1,000 LV | 42% | 48% | 1% | Talarico +6 | Paxton -4.3 | Pollster |
| University of Texas /Texas Politics Project Leans D+0.1 | 5 Aug 2026 - 13 Aug 2026 | 1,200 RV | 39% | 42% | 3% | Talarico +3 | Paxton -1.5 | Pollster |
| Emerson College Leans R+0.2 | 9 Aug 2026 - 10 Aug 2026 | 1,000 LV | 47% | 46% | - | Paxton +1 | Paxton +2.2 | Pollster |
| YouGov Blue D Leans D+1.5Poll conducted on behalf of 254 Labs | 15 Jul 2026 - 31 Jul 2026 | 1,001 RV | 45% | 48% | - | Talarico +3 | Paxton -1.2 | Pollster |
| Texas A&M University /ReconMR/ Siena University Leans D+1.0 | 27 Jul 2026 - 30 Jul 2026 | 619 LV | 43% | 47% | - | Talarico +4 | Paxton -2.1 | Pollster |
| Texas Southern University Leans R+0.8 | 27 Jul 2026 - 30 Jul 2026 | 1,200 LV | 45% | 47% | 2% | Talarico +2 | Paxton -0.1 | Pollster |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) Leans D+0.3Poll conducted for Fox News | 23 Jul 2026 - 27 Jul 2026 | 1,005 RV | 48% | 51% | - | Talarico +3 | Paxton -1.8 | Pollster |
| Texas Public Opinion Research D Leans D+0.9 | 15 Jul 2026 - 17 Jul 2026 | 1,048 LV | 40% | 45% | 1% | Talarico +5 | Paxton -4.8 | Pollster |
| A2 Insights Leans D+0.6 | 23 Jun 2026 - 28 Jun 2026 | 618 LV | 46% | 48% | - | Talarico +2 | Paxton -2.3 | Pollster |
| New York Times / Siena University Leans D+1.0 | 19 Jun 2026 - 27 Jun 2026 | 656 LV | 47% | 47% | - | Tie | Paxton -0.8 | Pollster |
| SoCal Strategies R Leans R+1.0↑ Poll sponsored by Red Eagle Politics, which supports Paxton | 21 Jun 2026 | 800 LV | 49% | 47% | - | Paxton +2 | Paxton +1.4 | Pollster |
| University of Texas /Texas Politics Project Leans D+0.1 | 5 Jun 2026 - 12 Jun 2026 | 1,200 RV | 43% | 42% | 3% | Paxton +1 | Paxton +0.5 | Pollster |
| Quantus Insights Leans R+1.4 | 3 Jun 2026 - 4 Jun 2026 | 800 LV | 45% | 43% | - | Paxton +2 | Paxton +1.8 | Pollster |
| Texas A&M University /ReconMR/ Siena University Leans D+1.0 | 1 Jun 2026 - 4 Jun 2026 | 807 LV | 46% | 46% | - | Tie | Paxton -0.2 | Pollster |
| Texas Public Opinion Research D Leans D+0.9 | 27 May 2026 - 28 May 2026 | 1,670 LV | 44% | 47% | 1% | Talarico +3 | Pollster | |
| Public Policy Polling D Leans D+0.9↑ Poll sponsored by Lone Star Rising PAC, which supports TalaricoNot in average: taken before the primary (26 May) | 22 May 2026 - 23 May 2026 | 643 RV | 38% | 45% | 3% | Talarico +7 | Pollster | |
| Texas Southern University Leans R+0.8Not in average: taken before the primary (26 May) | 22 Apr 2026 - 6 May 2026 | 1,223 LV | 45% | 45% | 2% | Tie | Pollster | |
| Texas Public Opinion Research D Leans D+0.9Not in average: taken before the primary (26 May) | 17 Apr 2026 - 20 Apr 2026 | 1,018 LV | 41% | 46% | - | Talarico +5 | Pollster | |
| University of Texas /Texas Politics Project Leans D+0.1Not in average: taken before the primary (26 May) | 10 Apr 2026 - 20 Apr 2026 | 1,200 RV | 34% | 42% | - | Talarico +8 | Pollster | |
| Impact Research D Leans D+0.4Poll sponsored by Talarico's campaignNot in average: taken before the primary (26 May) | 12 Mar 2026 - 17 Mar 2026 | 900 LV | 43% | 44% | 5% | Talarico +1 | Pollster | |
| Public Policy Polling D Leans D+0.9Poll sponsored by the Senate Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidates for U.S. SenateNot in average: taken before the primary (26 May) | 4 Mar 2026 - 5 Mar 2026 | 576 V | 45% | 47% | - | Talarico +2 | Pollster | |
| University of Houston / YouGov Leans D+0.4Not in average: taken before the primary (26 May) | 20 Jan 2026 - 31 Jan 2026 | 1,502 LV | 46% | 44% | 3% | Paxton +2 | Pollster | |
| Emerson College Leans R+0.2Not in average: taken before the primary (26 May) | 10 Jan 2026 - 12 Jan 2026 | 1,165 RV | 46% | 46% | - | Tie | Pollster | |
| Ragnar Research Partners RNot in average: taken before the primary (26 May) | 12 Nov 2025 - 17 Nov 2025 | 1,000 LV | 44% | 44% | - | Tie | Pollster | |
| University of Houston / Texas Southern UniversityNot in average: taken before the primary (26 May) | 19 Sep 2025 - 1 Oct 2025 | 1,650 RV | 49% | 46% | - | Paxton +3 | Pollster | |
| UT TylerNot in average: taken before the primary (26 May) | 17 Sep 2025 - 24 Sep 2025 | 1,032 RV | 38% | 37% | - | Paxton +1 | Pollster |
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Poll list adapted from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0).