US / US midterms 2026 / Minnesota Senate
Minnesota senate
Minnesota Senate 2026 results: Peggy Flanagan (D) vs Michele Tafoya (R)
Election day 3 November 2026
Result
Complete
DDHQ projects Peggy Flanagan (D), 12:05 am Wed ET
Peggy Flanagan D53.7%
1,520,865 votes
Michele Tafoya R43.6%
1,233,464 votes
Marisa Simonetti I1.5%
41,574 votes
Rebecca Whiting L1.1%
32,492 votes
Others O0.1%
3,381 votes
4,105 of 4,105 precincts reporting. Minnesota Secretary of State, 9:19 pm Wed ET (2:19 am Thu UK).
Count over time
Final pre-election PollCheck polling average
Average: Flanagan +4.7. Result: Flanagan +10.1
Peggy Flanagan (D)
48.5%
+1.8 in 30 days
Michele Tafoya (R)
43.8%
+0.8 in 30 days
Win probability
76%
Flanagan - Lean D
- Incumbent
- Tina Smith (D)
- Status
- Incumbent retiring
- Last result
- 2020: Tina Smith (D) 48.8%, Jason Lewis (R) 43.5%
- 2024 president
- D+4.2
- Election day
- 3 November 2026, polls close 9 pm Eastern (2 am Wed UK)
Polling trend
Minnesota senate polling average
Every poll
31 general election polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Flanagan | Tafoya | Spread | vs avg | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. Leans D+0.1 | 30 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 450 LV | 48% | 43% | Flanagan +5 | Flanagan +0.3 | Pollster |
| AtlasIntel Leans D+3.5 | 28 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 2,133 LV | 48% | 46% | Flanagan +2 | Flanagan -2.7 | Pollster |
| Survey 160 Leans D+1.7 | 27 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,365 LV | 52% | 43% | Flanagan +9 | Flanagan +4.3 | Pollster |
| Survey 160 Leans D+1.7Not in average: same survey, another version used | 27 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,365 LV | 52% | 43% | Flanagan +9 | Flanagan +4.3 | Pollster |
| Survey 160 Leans D+1.7Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 27 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,423 RV | 52% | 42% | Flanagan +10 | Flanagan +5.3 | Pollster |
| Survey 160 Leans D+1.7Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 27 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,423 RV | 51% | 42% | Flanagan +9 | Flanagan +4.3 | Pollster |
| InsiderAdvantage R Leans R+1.1 | 29 Oct 2026 - 30 Oct 2026 | 1,200 LV | 49% | 46% | Flanagan +3 | Flanagan -3.1 | Pollster |
| KSTP / SurveyUSA Leans D+0.1 | 24 Oct 2026 - 28 Oct 2026 | 714 LV | 48% | 41% | Flanagan +7 | Flanagan +0.9 | Pollster |
| New York Times / Siena University Leans D+1.0 | 19 Oct 2026 - 26 Oct 2026 | 752 LV | 54% | 40% | Flanagan +14 | Flanagan +7.9 | Pollster |
| Victory Insights R Leans R+0.1↑ Poll commissioned by Tafoya's campaign. | 21 Oct 2026 - 22 Oct 2026 | 1,194 LV | 48% | 44% | Flanagan +4 | Flanagan -0.3 | Pollster |
| Rasmussen Reports R Leans R+0.9 | 20 Oct 2026 - 21 Oct 2026 | 1,182 LV | 48% | 45% | Flanagan +3 | Flanagan -1.4 | Pollster |
| Trafalgar Group R Leans R+1.5 | 13 Oct 2026 - 15 Oct 2026 | 1,079 LV | 48% | 45% | Flanagan +3 | Flanagan -1.4 | Pollster |
| KSTP / SurveyUSA Leans D+0.1 | 8 Oct 2026 - 12 Oct 2026 | 718 LV | 45% | 42% | Flanagan +3 | Flanagan -1.3 | Pollster |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy Leans R+0.9↑ Poll sponsored by KARE 11 & The Minnesota Star Tribune | 5 Oct 2026 - 7 Oct 2026 | 800 LV | 47% | 43% | Flanagan +4 | Flanagan -0.3 | Pollster |
| Rasmussen Reports R Leans R+0.9 | 5 Oct 2026 - 7 Oct 2026 | 856 LV | 48% | 45% | Flanagan +3 | Flanagan -1.3 | Pollster |
| Morning Consult Leans R+1.6↑ Poll conducted for The Daily Agenda | 2 Oct 2026 - 7 Oct 2026 | 1,000 RV | 45% | 41% | Flanagan +4 | Flanagan -0.3 | Pollster |
| GQR D | 1 Oct 2026 - 4 Oct 2026 | 800 LV | 53% | 44% | Flanagan +9 | Flanagan +5.3 | Pollster |
| GQR DNot in average: same survey, another version used | 1 Oct 2026 - 4 Oct 2026 | 800 LV | 50% | 42% | Flanagan +8 | Flanagan +4.3 | Pollster |
| Big Data Poll R Leans D+0.5 | 29 Sep 2026 - 30 Sep 2026 | 622 LV | 46% | 44% | Flanagan +2 | Flanagan -0.6 | Pollster |
| Big Data Poll R Leans D+0.5Not in average: same survey, another version used | 29 Sep 2026 - 30 Sep 2026 | 622 LV | 40% | 38% | Flanagan +2 | Flanagan -0.6 | Pollster |
| InsiderAdvantage R Leans R+1.1 | 28 Sep 2026 - 29 Sep 2026 | 1,200 LV | 46% | 45% | Flanagan +1 | Flanagan -1.7 | Pollster |
| co/efficient R Leans R+3.3 | 14 Sep 2026 - 15 Sep 2026 | 833 LV | 43% | 42% | Flanagan +1 | Flanagan -2.0 | Pollster |
| KSTP / SurveyUSA Leans D+0.1 | 9 Sep 2026 - 14 Sep 2026 | 654 LV | 42% | 42% | Tie | Flanagan -2.7 | Pollster |
| Quantus Insights R Leans R+1.4 | 8 Sep 2026 - 10 Sep 2026 | 720 LV | 48% | 44% | Flanagan +4 | Flanagan -0.5 | Pollster |
| TIPP Insights R Leans R+1.1↑ Poll sponsored by the League of American WorkersNot in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 31 Aug 2026 - 2 Sep 2026 | 1,494 RV | 40% | 38% | Flanagan +2 | Flanagan -2.1 | Pollster |
| TIPP Insights R Leans R+1.1↑ Poll sponsored by the League of American Workers | 31 Aug 2026 - 2 Sep 2026 | 1,201 LV | 44% | 42% | Flanagan +2 | Flanagan -2.1 | Pollster |
| Deep Root Analytics R | 17 Aug 2026 - 18 Aug 2026 | 597 RV | 50% | 45% | Flanagan +5 | Pollster | |
| KTSP / SurveyUSA Leans D+0.1 | 13 Aug 2026 - 17 Aug 2026 | 661 LV | 46% | 41% | Flanagan +5 | Pollster | |
| Impact Research D Leans D+0.4Poll sponsored by Craig's campaignNot in average: taken before the primary (11 August) | 26 May 2026 - 28 May 2026 | 808 LV | 51% | 44% | Flanagan +7 | Pollster | |
| Emerson College Leans R+0.2Not in average: taken before the primary (11 August) | 6 Feb 2026 - 8 Feb 2026 | 1,000 LV | 47% | 41% | Flanagan +6 | Pollster | |
| Impact Research D Leans D+0.4Poll sponsored by Craig's campaignNot in average: taken before the primary (11 August) | 8 Jul 2025 - 11 Jul 2025 | 604 LV | 48% | 45% | Flanagan +3 | Pollster |
More on Minnesota
Minnesota House districts
More on the 2026 midterms
More races
Iowa - Alaska - Louisiana - Maine - Ohio (special) - Kansas - Texas - South Carolina - Nebraska - Michigan - New Hampshire - Idaho - Florida (special) - Georgia - North Carolina - Montana - Arkansas - Illinois - South Dakota - Alabama - New Mexico - Colorado - Massachusetts - Rhode Island
Poll list adapted from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0).