US / US midterms 2026 / Iowa Senate
Iowa senate
Iowa Senate 2026 results: Ashley Hinson (R) vs Josh Turek (D)
Election day 3 November 2026
Result
Result so far: 96% counted
DDHQ projects Josh Turek (D), 11:17 pm ET
Democratic gain from Republicans
Josh Turek D50.5%
686,486 votes
Ashley Hinson R46.3%
630,615 votes
Thomas Laehn L3.1%
42,052 votes
Others O0.1%
1,686 votes
95 of 99 counties reporting. Iowa Secretary of State, 2:54 pm Wed ET (7:54 pm Wed UK).
Final pre-election PollCheck polling average
Ashley Hinson (R)
46.3%
+1.5 in 30 days
Josh Turek (D)
46.9%
0.0 in 30 days
Win probability
53%
Hinson - Toss-up
- Incumbent
- Joni Ernst (R)
- Status
- Incumbent retiring
- Last result
- 2020: Joni Ernst (R) 51.8%, Theresa Greenfield (D) 45.2%
- 2024 president
- R+13.2
- Election day
- 3 November 2026, polls close 9 pm Eastern (2 am Wed UK)
Polling trend
Iowa senate polling average
Every poll
50 general election polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Hinson | Turek | Spread | vs avg | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel Leans D+3.5 | 28 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,219 LV | 46% | 51% | Turek +5 | Hinson -4.4 | Pollster |
| New York Times / Siena University Leans D+1.0 | 26 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 705 LV | 47% | 48% | Turek +1 | Hinson -0.4 | Pollster |
| GrayHouse R Leans R+1.6 | 28 Oct 2026 - 31 Oct 2026 | 601 LV | 48% | 46% | Hinson +2 | Hinson +2.4 | Pollster |
| Rasmussen Reports R Leans R+0.9 | 27 Oct 2026 - 31 Oct 2026 | 901 LV | 47% | 46% | Hinson +1 | Hinson +1.4 | Pollster |
| YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 26 Oct 2026 - 29 Oct 2026 | 2,020 LV | 49% | 50% | Turek +1 | Hinson -0.5 | Pollster |
| co/efficient R Leans R+3.3 | 28 Oct 2026 | 1,020 LV | 48% | 46% | Hinson +2 | Hinson +2.5 | Pollster |
| Echelon Insights R Leans R+0.8↑ Poll conducted for NetChoice | 16 Oct 2026 - 23 Oct 2026 | 403 LV | 43% | 45% | Turek +2 | Hinson -1.5 | Pollster |
| InsiderAdvantage R Leans R+1.1 | 21 Oct 2026 - 22 Oct 2026 | 1,200 LV | 47% | 45% | Hinson +2 | Hinson +2.4 | Pollster |
| co/efficient R Leans R+3.3 | 15 Oct 2026 - 19 Oct 2026 | 863 LV | 48% | 45% | Hinson +3 | Hinson +3.5 | Pollster |
| co/efficient R Leans R+3.3Not in average: same survey, another version used | 15 Oct 2026 - 19 Oct 2026 | 863 LV | 49% | 46% | Hinson +3 | Hinson +3.5 | Pollster |
| Trafalgar Group R Leans R+1.5 | 13 Oct 2026 - 15 Oct 2026 | 1,094 LV | 46% | 44% | Hinson +2 | Hinson +2.5 | Pollster |
| GS Strategy Group (R)/ New River Strategies (D) Leans D+1.0↑ Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report . | 9 Oct 2026 - 13 Oct 2026 | 602 LV | 44% | 46% | Turek +2 | Hinson -1.5 | Pollster |
| NPA Polling Leans R+1.2 | 8 Oct 2026 - 12 Oct 2026 | 678 LV | 47% | 44% | Hinson +3 | Hinson +3.4 | Pollster |
| NPA Polling Leans R+1.2Not in average: same survey, another version used | 8 Oct 2026 - 12 Oct 2026 | 678 LV | 48% | 47% | Hinson +1 | Hinson +1.4 | Pollster |
| YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 6 Oct 2026 - 12 Oct 2026 | 2,245 LV | 46% | 47% | Turek +1 | Hinson -0.6 | Pollster |
| Marist University Leans D+1.6 | 8 Oct 2026 - 11 Oct 2026 | - LV | 45% | 48% | Turek +3 | Hinson -2.0 | Pollster |
| Marist University Leans D+1.6Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 8 Oct 2026 - 11 Oct 2026 | 1,100 RV | 44% | 51% | Turek +7 | Hinson -6.0 | Pollster |
| Emerson College Leans R+0.2↑ Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group | 5 Oct 2026 - 6 Oct 2026 | 650 LV | 47% | 45% | Hinson +2 | Hinson +3.2 | Pollster |
| SSRS Leans D+0.8↑ "CNN Iowa Poll Conducted by SSRS" . SSRS . October 8, 2026 . Retrieved October 8, 2026 – via DocumentCloud .; ↑ Poll conducted for CNN | 29 Sep 2026 - 5 Oct 2026 | 801 LV | 45% | 43% | Hinson +2 | Hinson +3.3 | Pollster |
| Suffolk University Leans D+1.0 | 1 Oct 2026 - 4 Oct 2026 | 500 LV | 44% | 48% | Turek +4 | Hinson -1.9 | Pollster |
| New York Times / Siena University Leans D+1.0 | 22 Sep 2026 - 1 Oct 2026 | 606 LV | 48% | 47% | Hinson +1 | Hinson +2.9 | Pollster |
| Rasmussen Reports R Leans R+0.9 | 28 Sep 2026 - 30 Sep 2026 | 1,048 LV | 43% | 47% | Turek +4 | Hinson -1.8 | Pollster |
| Quantus Insights R Leans R+1.4 | 28 Sep 2026 - 29 Sep 2026 | 738 LV | 47% | 46% | Hinson +1 | Hinson +3.2 | Pollster |
| Quantus Insights R Leans R+1.4Not in average: same survey, another version used | 28 Sep 2026 - 29 Sep 2026 | 738 LV | 49% | 47% | Hinson +2 | Hinson +4.2 | Pollster |
| Quantus Insights R Leans R+1.4Not in average: same survey, another version used | 28 Sep 2026 - 29 Sep 2026 | 738 LV | 51% | 49% | Hinson +2 | Hinson +4.2 | Pollster |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) Leans D+0.3Poll conducted for Fox News | 24 Sep 2026 - 28 Sep 2026 | 1,008 LV | 47% | 49% | Turek +2 | Hinson +0.3 | Pollster |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) Leans D+0.3Poll conducted for Fox NewsNot in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 24 Sep 2026 - 28 Sep 2026 | 1,204 RV | 46% | 50% | Turek +4 | Hinson -1.7 | Pollster |
| InsiderAdvantage R Leans R+1.1 | 22 Sep 2026 - 23 Sep 2026 | 1,200 LV | 46% | 47% | Turek +1 | Hinson +1.4 | Pollster |
| Marist University Leans D+1.6 | 17 Sep 2026 - 20 Sep 2026 | 1,050 RV | 42% | 50% | Turek +8 | Hinson -5.6 | Pollster |
| Trafalgar Group R Leans R+1.5 | 16 Sep 2026 - 18 Sep 2026 | 1,089 LV | 44% | 42% | Hinson +2 | Hinson +3.2 | Pollster |
| co/efficient R Leans R+3.3 | 14 Sep 2026 - 16 Sep 2026 | 831 LV | 46% | 42% | Hinson +4 | Hinson +5.6 | Pollster |
| co/efficient R Leans R+3.3Not in average: same survey, another version used | 14 Sep 2026 - 16 Sep 2026 | 831 LV | 48% | 43% | Hinson +5 | Hinson +6.6 | Pollster |
| Cygnal R Leans D+0.1↑ Poll sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation | 9 Sep 2026 - 11 Sep 2026 | 500 LV | 43% | 43% | Tie | Hinson +1.9 | Pollster |
| Rasmussen Reports R Leans R+0.9 | 8 Sep 2026 - 10 Sep 2026 | 1,031 LV | 40% | 45% | Turek +5 | Hinson -2.9 | Pollster |
| YouGov Leans D+0.4Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 3 Sep 2026 - 8 Sep 2026 | 2,169 RV | 43% | 44% | Turek +1 | Hinson +0.3 | Pollster |
| YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 3 Sep 2026 - 8 Sep 2026 | 2,041 LV | 43% | 47% | Turek +4 | Hinson -2.7 | Pollster |
| Emerson College Leans R+0.2 | 31 Aug 2026 - 1 Sep 2026 | 750 LV | 50% | 45% | Hinson +5 | Hinson +4.3 | Pollster |
| Global Strategy Group D Leans D+1.4Poll sponsored by Turek's campaign | 27 Aug 2026 - 31 Aug 2026 | 800 LV | 42% | 46% | Turek +4 | Hinson -3.8 | Pollster |
| Abacus Data Leans D+2.5 | 26 Aug 2026 - 28 Aug 2026 | 323 LV | 45% | 54% | Turek +9 | Hinson -9.2 | Pollster |
| Abacus Data Leans D+2.5Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 26 Aug 2026 - 28 Aug 2026 | 500 RV | 46% | 52% | Turek +6 | Hinson -6.2 | Pollster |
| Suffolk University Leans D+1.0 | 20 Aug 2026 - 23 Aug 2026 | 500 LV | 45% | 41% | Hinson +4 | Hinson +1.0 | Pollster |
| Emerson College Leans R+0.2 | 2 Aug 2026 - 4 Aug 2026 | 712 LV | 48% | 45% | Hinson +3 | Hinson +1.6 | Pollster |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) Leans D+0.3Poll conducted for Fox News | 23 Jun 2026 - 27 Jun 2026 | 1,003 RV | 46% | 50% | Turek +4 | Hinson -3.7 | Pollster |
| New York Times / Siena University Leans D+1.0 | 15 Jun 2026 - 27 Jun 2026 | 600 LV | 48% | 46% | Hinson +2 | Hinson +2.3 | Pollster |
| Cygnal R Leans D+0.1↑ Poll sponsored by Iowans for Tax Relief | 16 Jun 2026 - 19 Jun 2026 | 600 LV | 46% | 44% | Hinson +2 | Hinson +1.2 | Pollster |
| Global Strategy Group D Leans D+1.4Poll sponsored by Turek's campaign | 8 Jun 2026 - 11 Jun 2026 | 1,000 LV | 45% | 47% | Turek +2 | Pollster | |
| Public Policy Polling D Leans D+0.9↑ Poll conducted for the DSCC | 3 Jun 2026 - 4 Jun 2026 | 557 RV | 46% | 46% | Tie | Pollster | |
| Echelon Insights R Leans R+0.8Poll commissioned by NetChoiceNot in average: taken before the primary (2 June) | 3 Apr 2026 - 9 Apr 2026 | 377 LV | 45% | 46% | Turek +1 | Pollster | |
| GQR DPoll sponsored by Turek's campaignNot in average: taken before the primary (2 June) | 10 Mar 2026 - 16 Mar 2026 | 1,200 LV | 47% | 43% | Hinson +4 | Pollster | |
| Change Research D Leans D+0.6Not in average: taken before the primary (2 June) | 8 Jan 2026 - 11 Jan 2026 | 1,108 LV | 44% | 41% | Hinson +3 | Pollster |
More on Iowa
Iowa House districts
More on the 2026 midterms
More races
Alaska - Louisiana - Maine - Ohio (special) - Kansas - Texas - South Carolina - Nebraska - Michigan - Minnesota - New Hampshire - Idaho - Florida (special) - Georgia - North Carolina - Montana - Arkansas - Illinois - South Dakota - Alabama - New Mexico - Colorado - Massachusetts - Rhode Island
Poll list adapted from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0).