US / US midterms 2026 / Alaska Senate
Alaska senate
Alaska Senate 2026 results: Dan S. Sullivan (R) vs Mary Peltola (D)
Election day 3 November 2026
Result
Result so far: first choices; ranked-choice count if no one passes 50%
Mary Peltola D48.2%
102,962 votes
Dan S. Sullivan R47.9%
102,325 votes
Gerald Heikes R2.3%
4,846 votes
Dan J. Sullivan R1.7%
3,600 votes
Alaska Division of Elections, 9:19 pm Wed ET (2:19 am Thu UK).
First-choice votes. Ranked-choice counting follows if no one passes 50%.
Count over time
Final pre-election PollCheck polling average
Dan S. Sullivan (R)
47.6%
-0.8 in 30 days
Mary Peltola (D)
49.4%
-2.2 in 30 days
Win probability
55%
Peltola - Toss-up
- Incumbent
- Dan Sullivan (R)
- Status
- Incumbent advanced to general
- Last result
- 2020: Dan Sullivan (R) 53.9%, Al Gross (I) 41.2%
- 2024 president
- R+13.1
- Election day
- 3 November 2026, polls close 12 am and 1 am Wed Eastern (5 am and 6 am Wed UK)
Polling trend
Alaska senate polling average
Every poll
29 general election polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Sullivan | Peltola | Spread | vs avg | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage R Leans R+1.1 | 31 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,200 LV | 50% | 50% | Tie | Sullivan +1.8 | Pollster |
| AtlasIntel Leans D+3.5 | 28 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 522 LV | 44.6% | 50.1% | Peltola +5.5 | Sullivan -3.7 | Pollster |
| New York Times/Siena Leans D+1.0 | 23 Oct 2026 - 30 Oct 2026 | 610 LV | 46% | 48% | Peltola +2 | 0.0 | Pollster |
| Alaska Survey Research Leans D+0.4Not in average: earlier ranked-choice round, final round used | 26 Oct 2026 - 29 Oct 2026 | 1,326 LV | 46% | 48% | Peltola +2 | Sullivan +0.6 | Pollster |
| Alaska Survey Research Leans D+0.4Not in average: earlier ranked-choice round, final round used | 26 Oct 2026 - 29 Oct 2026 | 1,326 LV | 47% | 48% | Peltola +1 | Sullivan +1.6 | Pollster |
| Alaska Survey Research Leans D+0.4 | 26 Oct 2026 - 29 Oct 2026 | 1,326 LV | 49% | 51% | Peltola +2 | Sullivan +0.6 | Pollster |
| Data for Progress D Leans D+0.2Not in average: first choices only, no final round | 8 Oct 2026 - 16 Oct 2026 | 694 LV | 44% | 47% | Peltola +3 | Sullivan -0.1 | Pollster |
| Data for Progress D Leans D+0.2Not in average: earlier ranked-choice round, final round used | 8 Oct 2026 - 16 Oct 2026 | 675 LV | 46% | 49% | Peltola +3 | Sullivan -0.1 | Pollster |
| Data for Progress D Leans D+0.2Not in average: first choices only, no final round | 8 Oct 2026 - 16 Oct 2026 | 675 LV | 46% | 49% | Peltola +3 | Sullivan -0.1 | Pollster |
| Data for Progress D Leans D+0.2 | 8 Oct 2026 - 16 Oct 2026 | 671 LV | 49% | 51% | Peltola +2 | Sullivan +0.9 | Pollster |
| Data for Progress D Leans D+0.2Not in average: same survey, another version used | 8 Oct 2026 - 16 Oct 2026 | 660 LV | 50% | 50% | Tie | Sullivan +2.9 | Pollster |
| InsiderAdvantage R Leans R+1.1Not in average: earlier ranked-choice round, final round used | 9 Oct 2026 - 10 Oct 2026 | 1,200 LV | 43% | 48% | Peltola +5 | Sullivan -1.8 | Pollster |
| InsiderAdvantage R Leans R+1.1 | 9 Oct 2026 - 10 Oct 2026 | 1,200 LV | 48% | 50% | Peltola +2 | Sullivan +1.2 | Pollster |
| Alaska Survey Research Leans D+0.4Not in average: earlier ranked-choice round, final round used | 1 Oct 2026 - 3 Oct 2026 | 1,512 LV | 45% | 47% | Peltola +2 | Sullivan +1.2 | Pollster |
| Alaska Survey Research Leans D+0.4Not in average: earlier ranked-choice round, final round used | 1 Oct 2026 - 3 Oct 2026 | 1,512 LV | 47% | 48% | Peltola +1 | Sullivan +2.2 | Pollster |
| Alaska Survey Research Leans D+0.4 | 1 Oct 2026 - 3 Oct 2026 | 1,512 LV | 49% | 51% | Peltola +2 | Sullivan +1.2 | Pollster |
| Alaska Survey Research Leans D+0.4Not in average: earlier ranked-choice round, final round used | 10 Sep 2026 - 12 Sep 2026 | 1,352 LV | 44% | 48% | Peltola +4 | Pollster | |
| Alaska Survey Research Leans D+0.4Not in average: earlier ranked-choice round, final round used | 10 Sep 2026 - 12 Sep 2026 | 1,352 LV | 45% | 50% | Peltola +5 | Pollster | |
| Alaska Survey Research Leans D+0.4 | 10 Sep 2026 - 12 Sep 2026 | 1,352 LV | 48% | 52% | Peltola +4 | Pollster | |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) Leans D+0.8Poll sponsored by AARPNot in average: earlier ranked-choice round, final round used | 8 Sep 2026 - 11 Sep 2026 | 800 LV | 41% | 45% | Peltola +4 | Pollster | |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) Leans D+0.8Poll sponsored by AARPNot in average: earlier ranked-choice round, final round used | 8 Sep 2026 - 11 Sep 2026 | 800 LV | 43% | 50% | Peltola +7 | Pollster | |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) Leans D+0.8Poll sponsored by AARPNot in average: earlier ranked-choice round, final round used | 8 Sep 2026 - 11 Sep 2026 | 800 LV | 45% | 51% | Peltola +6 | Pollster | |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) Leans D+0.8Poll sponsored by AARP | 8 Sep 2026 - 11 Sep 2026 | 800 LV | 47% | 53% | Peltola +6 | Pollster | |
| Data for Progress D Leans D+0.2Not in average: first choices only, no final round | 28 Jul 2026 - 4 Aug 2026 | 605 LV | 41% | 45% | Peltola +4 | Pollster | |
| Data for Progress D Leans D+0.2Not in average: earlier ranked-choice round, final round used | 28 Jul 2026 - 4 Aug 2026 | 578 LV | 43% | 49% | Peltola +6 | Pollster | |
| Data for Progress D Leans D+0.2Not in average: earlier ranked-choice round, final round used | 28 Jul 2026 - 4 Aug 2026 | 575 LV | 45% | 50% | Peltola +5 | Pollster | |
| Data for Progress D Leans D+0.2Not in average: first choices only, no final round | 28 Jul 2026 - 4 Aug 2026 | 567 LV | 47% | 53% | Peltola +6 | Pollster | |
| Data for Progress D Leans D+0.2Not in average: taken before the primary (18 August) | 28 Jul 2026 - 4 Aug 2026 | 575 LV | 48% | 52% | Peltola +4 | Pollster | |
| Data for Progress D Leans D+0.2Not in average: same survey, another version used | 28 Jul 2026 - 4 Aug 2026 | 578 LV | 48% | 52% | Peltola +4 | Pollster |
More on Alaska
Alaska House district
More on the 2026 midterms
More races
Iowa - Louisiana - Maine - Ohio (special) - Kansas - Texas - South Carolina - Nebraska - Michigan - Minnesota - New Hampshire - Idaho - Florida (special) - Georgia - North Carolina - Montana - Arkansas - Illinois - South Dakota - Alabama - New Mexico - Colorado - Massachusetts - Rhode Island
Poll list adapted from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0).