US / US midterms 2026 / Kansas Senate
Kansas senate
Kansas Senate 2026 results: Roger Marshall (R) vs Adam Hamilton (D)
Election day 3 November 2026
Result
Result so far: 99% reporting
DDHQ projects Adam Hamilton (D), 10:48 pm ET
Democratic gain from Republicans
Adam Hamilton D51.0%
559,853 votes
Roger Marshall R46.0%
504,950 votes
David Graham L3.0%
33,117 votes
civicAPI, 9:19 pm Wed ET (2:19 am Thu UK).
Final pre-election PollCheck polling average
Roger Marshall (R)
45.8%
+1.2 in 30 days
Adam Hamilton (D)
48.8%
+2.7 in 30 days
David Graham (L)
3.6%
-0.6 in 30 days
Win probability
65%
Hamilton - Toss-up
- Incumbent
- Roger Marshall (R)
- Status
- Incumbent renominated
- Last result
- 2020: Roger Marshall (R) 53.2%, Barbara Bollier (D) 41.8%
- 2024 president
- R+16.1
- Election day
- 3 November 2026, polls close 8 pm and 9 pm Eastern (1 am and 2 am Wed UK)
Polling trend
Kansas senate polling average
Every poll
29 general election polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Marshall | Hamilton | Graham | Spread | vs avg | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel Leans D+3.5 | 28 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 2,038 LV | 45% | 52% | - | Hamilton +7 | Marshall -4.0 | Pollster |
| Survey 160 Leans D+1.7 | 27 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,267 LV | 44% | 50% | - | Hamilton +6 | Marshall -3.0 | Pollster |
| Survey 160 Leans D+1.7Not in average: same survey, another version used | 27 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,267 LV | 43% | 50% | - | Hamilton +7 | Marshall -4.0 | Pollster |
| Survey 160 Leans D+1.7Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 27 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,339 RV | 43% | 50% | - | Hamilton +7 | Marshall -4.0 | Pollster |
| Survey 160 Leans D+1.7Not in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 27 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 1,339 RV | 42% | 49% | - | Hamilton +7 | Marshall -4.0 | Pollster |
| New York Times / Siena University Leans D+1.0 | 27 Oct 2026 - 1 Nov 2026 | 736 LV | 44% | 49% | 4% | Hamilton +5 | Marshall -2.0 | Pollster |
| YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 26 Oct 2026 - 29 Oct 2026 | 2,092 LV | 49% | 50% | - | Hamilton +1 | Marshall +1.2 | Pollster |
| Emerson College Leans R+0.2 | 26 Oct 2026 - 28 Oct 2026 | 800 LV | 47% | 50% | 3% | Hamilton +3 | Marshall -0.5 | Pollster |
| Emerson College Leans R+0.2Not in average: same survey, another version used | 26 Oct 2026 - 28 Oct 2026 | 800 LV | 45% | 49% | 3% | Hamilton +4 | Marshall -1.5 | Pollster |
| The Washington Post / SSPG Leans D+2.7 | 22 Oct 2026 - 26 Oct 2026 | 801 LV | 43% | 52% | 4% | Hamilton +9 | Marshall -6.5 | Pollster |
| The Washington Post / SSPG Leans D+2.7Not in average: same survey, another version used | 22 Oct 2026 - 26 Oct 2026 | 801 LV | 44% | 54% | - | Hamilton +10 | Marshall -7.5 | Pollster |
| SSRS Leans D+0.8↑ "CNN poll conducted by SSRS Kansas October" . CNN . October 29, 2026 . Retrieved October 29, 2026 – via DocumentCloud .; ↑ Poll conducted for CNN | 20 Oct 2026 - 26 Oct 2026 | 838 LV | 45% | 49% | - | Hamilton +4 | Marshall -1.5 | Pollster |
| RedBox Research D | 20 Oct 2026 - 23 Oct 2026 | 1,301 LV | 46% | 45% | 3% | Marshall +1 | Marshall +1.9 | Pollster |
| InsiderAdvantage R Leans R+1.1 | 13 Oct 2026 - 14 Oct 2026 | 1,200 LV | 48% | 47% | 3% | Marshall +1 | Marshall +2.4 | Pollster |
| InsiderAdvantage R Leans R+1.1 | 9 Oct 2026 - 10 Oct 2026 | 1,200 LV | 47% | 48% | 3% | Hamilton +1 | Marshall +0.5 | Pollster |
| GBAO D Leans D+1.7Poll sponsored by Hamilton's campaign | 30 Sep 2026 - 4 Oct 2026 | 600 LV | 41% | 46% | 7% | Hamilton +5 | Marshall -3.5 | Pollster |
| GBAO D Leans D+1.7Poll sponsored by Hamilton's campaignNot in average: same survey, another version used | 30 Sep 2026 - 4 Oct 2026 | 600 LV | 44% | 49% | - | Hamilton +5 | Marshall -3.5 | Pollster |
| YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 24 Sep 2026 - 4 Oct 2026 | 2,255 LV | 45% | 48% | - | Hamilton +3 | Marshall -1.5 | Pollster |
| Trafalgar Group R Leans R+1.5 | 29 Sep 2026 - 1 Oct 2026 | 1,095 LV | 44% | 44% | 2% | Tie | Marshall +0.3 | Pollster |
| New York Times / Siena University Leans D+1.0 | 22 Sep 2026 - 30 Sep 2026 | 605 LV | 45% | 45% | 5% | Tie | 0.0 | Pollster |
| New York Times / Siena University Leans D+1.0Not in average: same survey, another version used | 22 Sep 2026 - 30 Sep 2026 | 605 LV | 47% | 46% | - | Marshall +1 | Marshall +1.0 | Pollster |
| Emerson College Leans R+0.2↑ Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group | 15 Sep 2026 - 16 Sep 2026 | 750 LV | 43% | 45% | 4% | Hamilton +2 | Marshall -1.4 | Pollster |
| Global Strategy Group D Leans D+1.4↑ Poll sponsored by the Democratic Attorneys General Association | 13 Sep 2026 - 16 Sep 2026 | 800 LV | 47% | 49% | - | Hamilton +2 | Marshall -1.4 | Pollster |
| Global Strategy Group D Leans D+1.4↑ Poll sponsored by the Democratic Attorneys General AssociationNot in average: same survey, another version used | 13 Sep 2026 - 16 Sep 2026 | 800 LV | 43% | 47% | 5% | Hamilton +4 | Marshall -3.4 | Pollster |
| co/efficient R Leans R+3.3 | 8 Sep 2026 - 10 Sep 2026 | 915 LV | 49% | 44% | 2% | Marshall +5 | Marshall +3.6 | Pollster |
| Global Strategy Group D Leans D+1.4↑ Poll sponsored by People over Politics Action | 12 Aug 2026 - 16 Aug 2026 | 800 LV | 43% | 44% | 5% | Hamilton +1 | Pollster | |
| Public Policy Polling D Leans D+0.9↑ Poll sponsored by Senate Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.S. Senate | 7 Aug 2026 - 8 Aug 2026 | 569 LV | 46% | 45% | - | Marshall +1 | Pollster | |
| GBAO D Leans D+1.7Poll sponsored by Hamilton's campaignNot in average: taken before the primary (4 August) | 8 Jul 2026 - 13 Jul 2026 | 600 LV | 47% | 43% | - | Marshall +4 | Pollster | |
| Tavern Research D Leans R+1.8Not in average: taken before the primary (4 August) | 26 Jan 2026 - 28 Jan 2026 | 1,013 LV | 54% | 46% | - | Marshall +8 | Pollster |
More on Kansas
Kansas House districts
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Poll list adapted from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0).