Arkansas Senate Election Results 2026: Cotton vs Shoffner

Result

Result so far: 99% reporting

Tom Cotton R54.3%

480,576 votes

Hallie Shoffner D42.4%

375,620 votes

Jeff Wadlin L3.3%

29,480 votes

civicAPI, 10:49 am Wed ET (3:49 pm Wed UK).

Final pre-election PollCheck polling average

Tom Cotton (R)

50.8%

+2.1 in 30 days

Hallie Shoffner (D)

40.3%

-0.7 in 30 days

Win probability

93%

Cotton - Likely R

Incumbent: Tom Cotton (R)
Status: Incumbent renominated
Last result: 2020: Tom Cotton (R) 66.5%, Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. (L) 33.5%
2024 president: R+30.6
Election day: 3 November 2026, polls close 8:30 pm Eastern (1:30 am Wed UK)

Polling trend

Every poll

Pollster	Fieldwork	Sample	Cotton	Shoffner	Spread	vs avg	Source
GrayHouse R Leans R+1.6	27 Oct 2026 - 28 Oct 2026	509 LV	55%	39%	Cotton +16	Cotton +5.5	Pollster
GrayHouse R Leans R+1.6Not in average: same survey, another version used	27 Oct 2026 - 28 Oct 2026	509 LV	51%	37%	Cotton +14	Cotton +3.5	Pollster
Hendrix CollegePoll sponsored by Talk Business & Politics	8 Oct 2026 - 13 Oct 2026	709 LV	50%	41%	Cotton +9	Cotton -0.1	Pollster
GrayHouse R Leans R+1.6	30 Sep 2026 - 4 Oct 2026	550 LV	51%	40%	Cotton +11	Cotton +3.3	Pollster
GrayHouse R Leans R+1.6Not in average: same survey, another version used	30 Sep 2026 - 4 Oct 2026	550 LV	50%	39%	Cotton +11	Cotton +3.3	Pollster
J.L. Partners	14 Aug 2026 - 18 Aug 2026	803 LV	51%	35%	Cotton +16	Cotton +9.8	Pollster
Hendrix CollegePoll sponsored by Talk Business & Politics	11 Aug 2026 - 12 Aug 2026	1,217 LV	44%	47%	Shoffner +3		Pollster
2040 Strategy Group D↑ Poll sponsored by Shoffner's campaign	17 Jul 2026 - 25 Jul 2026	586 LV	46%	43%	Cotton +3		Pollster
GrayHouse R Leans R+1.6↑ Poll sponsored by America One PoliciesNot in average: taken before the primary (31 March)	7 Feb 2026 - 9 Feb 2026	550 LV	58%	36%	Cotton +22		Pollster