US / US midterms 2026 / Florida Senate (special)
Florida senate (special election)
Florida Senate 2026 results: Ashley Moody (R) vs Angie Nixon (D)
Election day 3 November 2026
Result
Result so far: 99% reporting
DDHQ projects Ashley Moody (R), 8:01 pm ET
Ashley Moody R50.9%
4,208,022 votes
Angie Nixon D48.0%
3,969,303 votes
Neil Gillespie I1.1%
94,538 votes
civicAPI, 9:19 pm Wed ET (2:19 am Thu UK).
Final pre-election PollCheck polling average
Ashley Moody (R)
49.5%
+0.3 in 30 days
Angie Nixon (D)
43.3%
+0.6 in 30 days
Win probability
95%
Moody - Safe R
- Incumbent
- Ashley Moody (R)
- Status
- Interim appointee nominated
- Last result
- 2022: Marco Rubio (R) 57.7%, Val Demings (D) 41.3%
- 2024 president
- R+13.1
- Election day
- 3 November 2026, polls close 7 pm and 8 pm Eastern (12 am and 1 am Wed UK)
Polling trend
Florida senate polling average
Every poll
37 general election polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Moody | Nixon | Spread | vs avg | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. Leans D+0.1 | 31 Oct 2026 - 2 Nov 2026 | 450 LV | 51% | 44% | Moody +7 | Moody +0.8 | Pollster |
| RedBox Research D | 30 Oct 2026 - 31 Oct 2026 | 2,898 LV | 47% | 45% | Moody +2 | Moody -4.0 | Pollster |
| Big Data Poll Leans D+0.5↑ Poll sponsored by 1776 Law Center and Public Polling Project | 26 Oct 2026 - 30 Oct 2026 | 1,067 LV | 52% | 45% | Moody +7 | Moody +0.7 | Pollster |
| Big Data Poll Leans D+0.5↑ Poll sponsored by 1776 Law Center and Public Polling ProjectNot in average: same survey, another version used | 26 Oct 2026 - 30 Oct 2026 | 1,067 LV | 48% | 42% | Moody +6 | Moody -0.3 | Pollster |
| Big Data Poll Leans D+0.5↑ Poll sponsored by 1776 Law Center and Public Polling ProjectNot in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 26 Oct 2026 - 30 Oct 2026 | 1,122 RV | 51% | 45% | Moody +6 | Moody -0.3 | Pollster |
| Big Data Poll Leans D+0.5↑ Poll sponsored by 1776 Law Center and Public Polling ProjectNot in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 26 Oct 2026 - 30 Oct 2026 | 1,122 RV | 47% | 41% | Moody +6 | Moody -0.3 | Pollster |
| Stetson University Leans R+2.3 | 26 Oct 2026 - 30 Oct 2026 | 852 RV | 49% | 45% | Moody +4 | Moody -2.3 | Pollster |
| InsiderAdvantage R Leans R+1.1 | 28 Oct 2026 - 29 Oct 2026 | 1,200 LV | 49% | 43% | Moody +6 | Moody -0.3 | Pollster |
| Targoz Market Research Leans R+2.2 | 26 Oct 2026 - 29 Oct 2026 | 1,013 LV | 52% | 43% | Moody +9 | Moody +2.7 | Pollster |
| Political Matrix/The Listener Group Leans D+0.6 | 26 Oct 2026 - 28 Oct 2026 | 500 LV | 42% | 36% | Moody +6 | Moody -0.4 | Pollster |
| St. Pete Polls Leans D+2.0↑ "Florida Statewide survey conducted for FloridaPolitics.com" . St. Pete Polls. October 27, 2026 . Retrieved October 28, 2026 .; Poll sponsored by Florida Politics | 25 Oct 2026 - 27 Oct 2026 | 916 LV | 49% | 45% | Moody +4 | Moody -2.4 | Pollster |
| ActiVote Leans R+0.5 | 17 Oct 2026 - 27 Oct 2026 | 400 LV | 53% | 47% | Moody +6 | Moody -0.4 | Pollster |
| New York Times / Siena University Leans D+1.0 | 19 Oct 2026 - 25 Oct 2026 | 813 LV | 50% | 44% | Moody +6 | Moody -0.4 | Pollster |
| RedBox Research D | 20 Oct 2026 - 23 Oct 2026 | 4,832 LV | 50% | 43% | Moody +7 | Moody +0.7 | Pollster |
| Echelon Insights R Leans R+0.8↑ Poll conducted for NetChoice | 16 Oct 2026 - 23 Oct 2026 | 515 LV | 51% | 43% | Moody +8 | Moody +1.7 | Pollster |
| Workbench Strategy D Leans D+1.8↑ Poll commissioned by Nixon's campaign | 18 Oct 2026 - 22 Oct 2026 | 800 LV | 49% | 47% | Moody +2 | Moody -4.1 | Pollster |
| co/efficient R Leans R+3.3 | 18 Oct 2026 - 20 Oct 2026 | 1,014 LV | 48% | 40% | Moody +8 | Moody +1.8 | Pollster |
| University of North Florida Leans D+0.9 | 12 Oct 2026 - 19 Oct 2026 | 1,471 LV | 49% | 45% | Moody +4 | Moody -2.4 | Pollster |
| Univision / YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 2 Oct 2026 - 15 Oct 2026 | 825 RV | 51% | 42% | Moody +9 | Moody +2.3 | Pollster |
| ActiVote Leans R+0.5 | 27 Sep 2026 - 15 Oct 2026 | 400 LV | 53% | 47% | Moody +6 | Moody -0.7 | Pollster |
| MDW Communications Leans D+0.6↑ Poll conducted for EDGE Communications | 4 Oct 2026 - 10 Oct 2026 | 2,351 LV | 48% | 42% | Moody +6 | Moody -0.4 | Pollster |
| Stetson University Leans R+2.3 | 1 Oct 2026 - 9 Oct 2026 | 716 LV | 52% | 41% | Moody +11 | Moody +4.8 | Pollster |
| St. Pete Polls Leans D+2.0↑ "Florida Statewide survey conducted for FloridaPolitics.com" (PDF) . St. Pete Polls. October 7, 2026 . Retrieved October 8, 2026 .; Poll sponsored by Florida Politics | 5 Oct 2026 - 7 Oct 2026 | 836 LV | 47% | 45% | Moody +2 | Moody -4.1 | Pollster |
| YouGov Leans D+0.4 | 28 Sep 2026 - 5 Oct 2026 | 3,813 LV | 49% | 44% | Moody +5 | Moody -1.2 | Pollster |
| Targoz Market Research Leans R+2.2↑ Poll sponsored by the James Madison Institute , a conservative think tank | 28 Sep 2026 - 4 Oct 2026 | 847 LV | 52% | 42% | Moody +10 | Moody +3.5 | Pollster |
| Targoz Market Research Leans R+2.2↑ Poll sponsored by the James Madison Institute , a conservative think tankNot in average: same survey, likely voter version used | 28 Sep 2026 - 4 Oct 2026 | 1,171 RV | 50% | 38% | Moody +12 | Moody +5.5 | Pollster |
| Mason-Dixon Leans R+0.9 | 28 Sep 2026 - 1 Oct 2026 | 625 LV | 50% | 40% | Moody +10 | Moody +3.9 | Pollster |
| Change Research D Leans D+0.6Poll commissioned by Freedom Project USA | 25 Sep 2026 - 27 Sep 2026 | 1,063 LV | 48% | 47% | Moody +1 | Moody -3.9 | Pollster |
| Stetson University Leans R+2.3 | 14 Sep 2026 - 21 Sep 2026 | 830 LV | 51% | 40% | Moody +11 | Moody +6.1 | Pollster |
| InsiderAdvantage R Leans R+1.1 | 20 Sep 2026 - 21 Sep 2026 | 600 LV | 49% | 42% | Moody +7 | Moody +2.1 | Pollster |
| St. Pete Polls Leans D+2.0↑ "Florida Statewide survey conducted for FloridaPolitics.com" (PDF) . St. Pete Polls. September 17, 2026 . Retrieved September 18, 2026 .; Poll sponsored by Florida Politics | 15 Sep 2026 - 17 Sep 2026 | 913 LV | 45% | 45% | Tie | Moody -2.4 | Pollster |
| Quantus Insights R Leans R+1.4 | 8 Sep 2026 - 10 Sep 2026 | 733 LV | 50% | 43% | Moody +7 | Pollster | |
| Change Research D Leans D+0.6Poll commissioned by Freedom Project USA | 7 Sep 2026 - 9 Sep 2026 | 1,107 LV | 47% | 47% | Tie | Pollster | |
| University of North Florida Leans D+0.9Not in average: taken before the primary (18 August) | 8 Jul 2026 - 17 Jul 2026 | 848 LV | 50% | 42% | Moody +8 | Pollster | |
| Stetson University Leans R+2.3Not in average: taken before the primary (18 August) | 15 Mar 2026 - 13 Apr 2026 | 848 LV | 51% | 38% | Moody +13 | Pollster | |
| Emerson College Leans R+0.2Not in average: taken before the primary (18 August) | 29 Mar 2026 - 31 Mar 2026 | 1,125 LV | 47% | 36% | Moody +11 | Pollster | |
| University of North Florida Leans D+0.9Not in average: taken before the primary (18 August) | 21 Feb 2026 - 2 Mar 2026 | 786 LV | 46% | 38% | Moody +8 | Pollster |
More on Florida
Florida House districts
More on the 2026 midterms
More races
Iowa - Alaska - Louisiana - Maine - Ohio (special) - Kansas - Texas - South Carolina - Nebraska - Michigan - Minnesota - New Hampshire - Idaho - Georgia - North Carolina - Montana - Arkansas - Illinois - South Dakota - Alabama - New Mexico - Colorado - Massachusetts - Rhode Island
Poll list adapted from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0).