2028 presidential election / Vance vs. Harris
Vance 43.6%, Harris 48.4%
PollCheck average of national polls from the last 180 days. Updated November 5, 2026.
MarginD+4.83 of 8 polls used
Polling trend
Vance vs. Harris polling average
Every poll
8 national polls
Newest first.
| Dates | Pollster | Sample | Vance | Harris | Margin | Undec. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026 | PollCheck average | 3 of 8 polls | 43.6 | 48.4 | D+4.8 | ||
| Aug 16-17, 2026 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | 45 | 49 | D+4 | 6 | Poll |
| Jul 1-4, 2026 | Zogby Analytics | 1,003 LV | 43 | 48 | D+5 | 9 | Poll |
| May 21, 2026 | TPSI | 893 LV | 39 | 47 | D+8 | 14 | Poll |
| Jan 1-7, 2026 | Zogby Analytics Not in average | 891 LV | 42.1 | 48.5 | D+6.4 | 9.4 | Poll |
| Nov 14-16, 2025 | Morning Consult Not in average | 2,201 RV | 42 | 43 | D+1 | 15 | Poll |
| Jun 23-26, 2025 | Overton Insights Not in average | 1,200 RV | 42 | 45 | D+3 | 12 | Poll |
| Dec 23, 2024 | On Point/SoCal Strategies Not in average | 656 A | 41 | 43 | D+2 | 16 | Poll |
| Dec 17-20, 2024 | American Pulse Research & Polling Not in average | 661 LV | 46 | 47 | D+1 | 7 | Poll |
Vance vs. NewsomVance vs. Ocasio-CortezVance vs. ButtigiegRubio vs. HarrisVance vs. CubanVance vs. OssoffAll pairings
How the average works
The average uses polls from the last 180 days, weighting recent and larger polls more. Each polling house counts once, and partisan-sponsored polls (R or D) count half. Where a poll reports several populations, likely voters are used first. A match-up needs 3 polls from 2 polling houses for an average.
Poll lists adapted from Wikipedia: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2028 United States presidential election (revision 1383801796). Licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0; PollCheck averages are derived from them.
Photos: official portraits, public domain (US government); see Photo credits.
PollCheck US. Data through November 5, 2026. Photo credits