2028 presidential election / Vance vs. Ocasio-Cortez

Vance 42.7%, Ocasio-Cortez 42.0%

PollCheck average of national polls from the last 180 days. Updated November 5, 2026.

JD VanceJD Vance
Republican
42.7%
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Democrat
42.0%
MarginR+0.75 of 10 polls used
Polling trend

Vance vs. Ocasio-Cortez polling average

Every poll

10 national polls

Newest first.

DatesPollsterSampleVanceOcasio-CortezMarginUndec.Source
Nov 5, 2026PollCheck average5 of 10 polls used5 of 10 polls42.742.0R+0.7
Oct 10-14, 2026YouGovThe Bulwark/Pablo Torre Finds Out/YouGovOct 10-14, 2026 · 1,417 A · Poll1,417 A3840D+222Poll
Oct 2-4, 2026YouGovUMass Lowell/YouGovOct 2-4, 2026 · 1,000 LV · Poll1,000 LV4245D+313Poll
Aug 26-28, 2026Quantus InsightsAug 26-28, 2026 · 1,200 LV · Poll1,200 LV4542R+313Poll
Aug 16-17, 2026Emerson CollegeAug 16-17, 2026 · 1,000 LV · Poll1,000 LV4644R+211Poll
Jul 1-4, 2026Zogby AnalyticsJul 1-4, 2026 · 1,003 LV · Poll1,003 LV4538R+77Poll
Mar 26-30, 2026UMass Lowell Not in averageMar 26-30, 2026 · 1,000 RV · Poll1,000 RV3633R+313Poll
Mar 6-10, 2026Focaldata Not in averageMar 6-10, 2026 · 1,782 A · Poll1,782 A4043D+318Poll
Dec 5-11, 2025VerasightThe Argument/Verasight Not in averageDec 5-11, 2025 · 1,521 RV · Poll1,521 RV4951D+2-Poll
Oct 16-20, 2025YouGov Not in averageOct 16-20, 2025 · 1,000 A · Poll1,000 A3434Tied32Poll
Jul 21-22, 2025Emerson College Not in averageJul 21-22, 2025 · 1,400 RV · Poll1,400 RV44.441R+3.414.6Poll
Vance vs. NewsomVance vs. HarrisRubio vs. Ocasio-CortezVance vs. ButtigiegVance vs. CubanVance vs. OssoffAll pairings
How the average works
The average uses polls from the last 180 days, weighting recent and larger polls more. Each polling house counts once, and partisan-sponsored polls (R or D) count half. Where a poll reports several populations, likely voters are used first. A match-up needs 3 polls from 2 polling houses for an average.

Poll lists adapted from Wikipedia: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2028 United States presidential election (revision 1383801796). Licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0; PollCheck averages are derived from them.

Photos: official portraits, public domain (US government); see Photo credits.

PollCheck US. Data through November 5, 2026. Photo credits