2028 presidential election / Vance vs. Newsom

Vance 40.6%, Newsom 43.9%

PollCheck average of national polls from the last 180 days. Updated November 5, 2026.

JD VanceJD Vance
Republican
40.6%
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom
Democrat
43.9%
MarginD+3.35 of 19 polls used
Polling trend

Vance vs. Newsom polling average

Every poll

19 national polls

Newest first.

DatesPollsterSampleVanceNewsomMarginUndec.Source
Nov 5, 2026PollCheck average5 of 19 polls used5 of 19 polls40.643.9D+3.3
Oct 10-14, 2026YouGovThe Bulwark/Pablo Torre Finds Out/YouGovOct 10-14, 2026 · 1,417 A · Poll1,417 A3641D+523Poll
Oct 2-4, 2026YouGovUMass Lowell/YouGovOct 2-4, 2026 · 1,000 LV · Poll1,000 LV4246D+412Poll
Aug 16-17, 2026Emerson CollegeAug 16-17, 2026 · 1,000 LV · Poll1,000 LV4449D+57Poll
Jul 1-4, 2026Zogby AnalyticsJul 1-4, 2026 · 1,003 LV · Poll1,003 LV4538R+77Poll
May 16-20, 2026Overton InsightsMay 16-20, 2026 · 1,377 V · Poll1,377 V3944D+59Poll
Mar 26-30, 2026UMass Lowell Not in averageMar 26-30, 2026 · 1,000 RV · Poll1,000 RV3633R+312Poll
Jan 1-7, 2026Zogby Analytics Not in averageJan 1-7, 2026 · 891 LV · Poll891 LV44.641R+3.614.3Poll
Nov 10-17, 2025VerasightThe Argument/Verasight Not in averageNov 10-17, 2025 · 1,508 RV · Poll1,508 RV46.453.6D+7.2-Poll
Nov 14-16, 2025Morning Consult Not in averageNov 14-16, 2025 · 2,201 RV · Poll2,201 RV4241R+117Poll
Oct 27-29, 2025Overton Insights Not in averageOct 27-29, 2025 · 1,200 RV · Poll1,200 RV4346D+311Poll
Oct 16-20, 2025YouGov Not in averageOct 16-20, 2025 · 1,000 A · Poll1,000 A3236D+432Poll
Oct 16-20, 2025Echelon Insights Not in averageOct 16-20, 2025 · 1,010 LV · Poll1,010 LV4647D+17Poll
Oct 13-14, 2025Emerson College Not in averageOct 13-14, 2025 · 1,000 RV · Poll1,000 RV45.544.9R+0.69.6Poll
Aug 29-Sep 2, 2025YouGovYouGov/Yahoo Not in averageAug 29-Sep 2, 2025 · 1,690 A · Poll1,690 A4149D+810Poll
Aug 29-31, 2025Leger360 Not in averageAug 29-31, 2025 · 849 A · Poll849 A4647D+17Poll
Aug 25-26, 2025Emerson College Not in averageAug 25-26, 2025 · 1,000 RV · Poll1,000 RV44.443.5R+0.912.1Poll
Aug 18, 2025On Point/SoCal Strategies Not in averageAug 18, 2025 · 700 A · Poll700 A3739D+223Poll
Jul 21-22, 2025Emerson College Not in averageJul 21-22, 2025 · 1,400 RV · Poll1,400 RV45.342.1R+3.212.6Poll
Dec 23, 2024On Point/SoCal Strategies Not in averageDec 23, 2024 · 656 A · Poll656 A3734R+329Poll
Vance vs. Ocasio-CortezVance vs. HarrisRubio vs. NewsomVance vs. ButtigiegVance vs. CubanVance vs. OssoffAll pairings
How the average works
The average uses polls from the last 180 days, weighting recent and larger polls more. Each polling house counts once, and partisan-sponsored polls (R or D) count half. Where a poll reports several populations, likely voters are used first. A match-up needs 3 polls from 2 polling houses for an average.

Poll lists adapted from Wikipedia: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2028 United States presidential election (revision 1383801796). Licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0; PollCheck averages are derived from them.

Photos: Gavin Newsom by Charles Ommanney - Office of the Governor of California, CC BY-SA 4.0 (source, cropped); others official portraits, public domain (US government); see Photo credits.

PollCheck US. Data through November 5, 2026. Photo credits