Seat tracker

Who would win a UK general election today, on the latest polls

Data through 4 November 2026

If an election were held today, the PollCheck seat model projects a Labour majority of 10 on 330 seats, with Conservatives on 143, Lib Dems on 60 and Reform UK on 45. 326 of 650 seats are needed for a majority.

This page tracks what the published polls imply, poll by poll. To set your own vote shares, use the Demographic Swingometer instead.

Projected seats · seven-poll average 650 seats · 326 for a majority
326 for a majority
The interactive version

This page tracks the polls. The Swingometer lets you change them.

Set any vote share, dial tactical voting up or down, and watch all 632 seats redraw on an interactive map.

Open the Swingometer
Find your seat

Look up a constituency

Every one of the 632 GB seats has a page with its current projection, the 2024 result and the full party breakdown.

Or jump to a leader or notable seat:

Makerfield Great Yarmouth Clacton Ashfield Islington North North West Essex Bristol Central Kingston and Surbiton All 632 profiles →
Trend

Projected seats since the 2024 election

How the seven-poll-average projection has moved. The dashed rule marks the 326 seats needed for a majority.

Momentum

What moved in the last 30 days

Each party's projected seats, its 90-day shape and the change over the last 30 days.

Poll by poll

See the projection from a single poll

The figures above blend the last seven polls. Pick one poll to see what it alone implies - the whole page updates to that reading.

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Against 2024

Change since the general election

The projected seat count against the 2024 result, party by party.

Party GE 2024 Projected Change Vs majority
Methodology

How the projection is built

The tracker turns published national vote shares into a Commons projection. Four steps, most closed by default, and a note on what changed.

The base data
The seat model covers all 632 GB constituencies (Northern Ireland's 18 seats are held at their 2024 result). It starts from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), a large online survey that shows how vote choice varies by age, sex, education, ethnicity, 2024 vote and region. That is applied to the people who live in each seat, from Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS), and to each seat's 2024 result.
The polling input
The headline projection is matched to the average of the last seven published national polls, so the seats add up to the polls across GB, with Scottish and Welsh polls setting the SNP and Plaid Cymru. Picking a single poll in the section above swaps that average for that one poll's vote shares and reprojects every seat from them.
Adjustments
On top of the survey model come a small amount of tactical voting and a few judgement calls. For a single poll, each seat moves from the headline by an amount the model works out for that seat, so the same national change lands differently in different places.
Seat allocation and what it misses
The largest share in each seat wins under first-past-the-post. The model captures demographic and regional variation that uniform national swing misses, but it does not see candidate quality or most local campaigns, and a single seat can turn on a handful of votes. Treat the seat totals as a central estimate, not a forecast.
What changed in autumn 2026
PollCheck replaced its seat model in autumn 2026. The old model moved each seat's 2024 result with the polls using multipliers based on the seat's demographics. The new one estimates each seat's vote from survey data weighted to the seat's population. The seat history on this page was recalculated with the new model, so past projections will not match what was shown at the time.
Frequently asked questions

Common questions about the seat tracker

If there was a general election tomorrow, who would win?
On the latest polls, Labour would win, with a projected majority of 10 on 330 seats. The projection turns the average of the last seven published polls into seats across all 632 GB constituencies. It is a central estimate from today's polls, not a forecast of the eventual result.
What are the chances of Reform UK winning the next election?
PollCheck does not publish a win probability; the model produces a central seat estimate, not odds. On current polling Reform UK are projected to win 45 seats, 281 short of the 326 needed for a majority. Converting that into a percentage chance would need a probabilistic forecast, which this model does not produce.
Will there be a hung parliament?
Not on the latest polls. Labour are projected to win 330 seats, a majority of 10. The exact seat totals are shown at the top of this page and change as new polls are added.
Can I set my own vote shares instead?
Yes. This page is the read-only version - it shows what the published polls imply and lets you read them poll by poll. To type in your own vote shares and change tactical voting, use the Demographic Swingometer, which redraws all 632 seats on an interactive map.
How does the seat tracker work?
It matches a seat model of all 632 GB constituencies, built from British Election Study survey data, the Census and the 2024 result, to the published polls, then picks the winner in each seat under first-past-the-post. The headline figure is a seven-poll average; you can also read the projection from any single poll.
Which polls are included?
All recent GB voting-intention polls from the major published pollsters - YouGov, More in Common, Find Out Now, Opinium, Survation and others. The seven-poll average uses the most recent seven; the poll-by-poll section lists them individually with fieldwork dates and sample sizes.
How accurate are seat projections?
They are a central estimate, not a forecast. Accuracy depends on polling quality and how close an election is, and individual seats can turn on local factors the model does not see. Two polls published a day apart can imply very different Commons arithmetic, which is why the page lets you read the projection from each poll as well as the seven-poll average.
How often is it updated?
Whenever a new poll is published and added to the database, typically several times a week. The seven-poll average and every projection on the page refresh automatically with the latest data.
Why is Northern Ireland missing?
Northern Ireland's 18 seats are contested by a separate party system that GB polls do not measure, so the model holds them at their 2024 result. The projection therefore covers the 632 GB seats; 326 of the full 650 are still needed for a majority.
Where next

More from PollCheck

Latest GB polls and the polling average Path to No 10: polls by age, sex, region and 2024 vote Party leader ratings Reform UK polls Council by-elections

Projected seats come from PollCheck's demographic model covering the 632 GB constituencies, with Northern Ireland's 18 seats held at their 2024 result. Seats are allocated under first-past-the-post. The seat history was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026. To set your own vote shares instead, use the Demographic Swingometer. Sources: published pollster tables aggregated by PollCheck; British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.); Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS); boundaries and 2024 results, ONS and the House of Commons Library.