Seat tracker

Where the polls put the Commons today

Data through 29 July 2026

If an election were held today, the PollCheck seat model projects Labour as the largest party on 271 seats, 55 short of a majority, with Reform UK on 127, Conservatives on 110 and the Lib Dems on 68. 326 of 650 seats are needed for a majority.

This page tracks what the published polls imply, poll by poll. To set your own vote shares and turnout, use the Demographic Swingometer instead.

Projected seats · seven-poll average 650 seats · 326 for a majority
326 for a majority
The interactive version

This page tracks the polls. The Swingometer lets you change them.

Set any vote share, adjust turnout by age, class or 2024 vote, dial tactical voting up or down, and watch all 632 seats redraw on an interactive map.

Open the Swingometer
Find your seat

Look up a constituency

Every one of the 632 GB seats has a page with its current projection, the 2024 result and the full party breakdown.

Or jump to a leader or notable seat:

Great Yarmouth Clacton Ashfield Islington North North West Essex Bristol Central Kingston and Surbiton All 632 profiles →
Trend

Projected seats since the 2024 election

How the seven-poll-average projection has moved. The dashed rule marks the 326 seats needed for a majority.

Momentum

What moved in the last 30 days

Each party's projected seats, its 90-day shape and the change over the last 30 days.

Poll by poll

See the projection from a single poll

The figures above blend the last seven polls. Pick one poll to see what it alone implies - the whole page updates to that reading.

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Against 2024

Change since the general election

The projected seat count against the 2024 result, party by party.

Party GE 2024 Projected Change Vs majority
Methodology

How the projection is built

The tracker turns published national vote shares into a Commons projection. Four steps, most closed by default.

The base data
A demographic model covers all 632 GB constituencies (Northern Ireland's 18 seats are held at their 2024 result). Each seat carries its 2024 vote shares, winner and a demographic profile - age, class, tenure, education and the 2024 vote itself.
The polling input
The headline projection blends the last seven published national polls into a seven-poll average. Picking a single poll in the section above swaps that average for that one poll's vote shares and reprojects every seat from them.
Vote sensitivity
A national move for a party does not land evenly. Each constituency has per-party sensitivity multipliers derived from its demographics, so the same national change produces a larger shift where a party's support is concentrated and a smaller one elsewhere. Regional parties (SNP, Plaid Cymru) are scaled to their nation rather than the GB figure.
Seat allocation and what it misses
Adjusted shares are normalised in each seat and the largest share wins under first-past-the-post. The model captures demographic and regional variation that uniform national swing misses, but it does not price in tactical voting, candidate quality or local incumbency, and a single seat can turn on a handful of votes. Treat the seat totals as a central estimate, not a forecast.
Frequently asked questions

Common questions about the seat tracker

If there was a general election tomorrow, who would win?
The projection at the top of this page turns the latest published polls into seats across all 632 GB constituencies and names the largest party. At present no party is projected to win an overall majority: the largest party sits short of the 326 seats needed to govern alone, which points to a hung parliament. It is a central estimate from today's polls, not a forecast of the eventual result.
What are the chances of Reform UK winning the next election?
PollCheck does not publish a win probability; the model produces a central seat estimate, not odds. It shows how many seats each party would win on current polling, and at present Reform UK are well short of the 326 seats needed for a majority. Converting that into a percentage chance would need a probabilistic forecast, which this model does not produce.
Will there be a hung parliament?
On the latest polls, no single party is projected to reach the 326 seats needed for a majority, so the current projection is a hung parliament. The exact seat totals, and how far the largest party sits from a majority, are shown at the top of this page and change as new polls are added.
Can I set my own vote shares instead?
Yes. This page is the read-only version - it shows what the published polls imply and lets you read them poll by poll. To type in your own vote shares, adjust turnout by demographic group and change tactical voting, use the Demographic Swingometer, which redraws all 632 seats on an interactive map.
How does the seat tracker work?
It applies each published poll's national vote shares to a demographic model of all 632 GB constituencies, using per-seat sensitivity multipliers rather than a uniform national swing, then picks the winner in each seat under first-past-the-post. The headline figure is a seven-poll average; you can also read the projection from any single poll.
Which polls are included?
All recent GB voting-intention polls from the major published pollsters - YouGov, More in Common, Find Out Now, Opinium, Survation and others. The seven-poll average uses the most recent seven; the poll-by-poll section lists them individually with fieldwork dates and sample sizes.
How accurate are seat projections?
They are a central estimate, not a forecast. Accuracy depends on polling quality and how close an election is, and individual seats can turn on local factors the model does not see. Two polls published a day apart can imply very different Commons arithmetic, which is why the page shows the range as well as the average.
How often is it updated?
Whenever a new poll is published and added to the database, typically several times a week. The seven-poll average and every projection on the page refresh automatically with the latest data.
Why is Northern Ireland missing?
Northern Ireland's 18 seats are contested by a separate party system that GB polls do not measure, so the model holds them at their 2024 result. The projection therefore covers the 632 GB seats; 326 of the full 650 are still needed for a majority.

Projected seats come from a demographic regression model covering the 632 GB constituencies, with Northern Ireland's 18 seats held at their 2024 result. Seats are allocated under first-past-the-post from each poll's national vote shares, adjusted per seat by demographic vote sensitivity. The model does not price in tactical voting, candidate quality or local incumbency, and it treats each seat independently. To set your own vote shares and turnout instead, use the Demographic Swingometer. Sources: published pollster tables aggregated by PollCheck; boundaries and 2024 results, ONS and the House of Commons Library.